There is enough evidence to the contrary. These approaches tell us that the drafters of the bill believe that high TFR among Muslims is a secular problem. First involves giving incentives like preference for admission in education institutions, selection in government jobs, tax breaks, etc., and second one involves steps like barring law breakers from contesting elections, receiving government subsidies, etc. The approaches entailed in the UP bill can be summed up in two categories - carrots and sticks. It is the high TFR of Muslim community that should be ideally and specifically addressed by the government but that’s not the case with the UP draft bill.
Now, high TFR in rural areas is a secular problem and can be addressed with more economic growth, education, awareness programmes, targeted schemes, etc. Otherwise, TFR is 24 states in the country has slipped below the replacement levels (meaning their population will start falling in a few years). In any case, the main issue is not overall TFR but certain TFRs - TFR of Muslim women (hence the TFR deficit between Hindu TFR and Muslim TFR is of particular concern to proponents of ‘population control bills’) and TFR in a select few poor, rural states (primarily in eastern India). In the last five years, it would’ve been reduced even further and is likely to reach 2.1 in a matter of few years without any specific push from the government. And this TFR has come down significantly from more than 4 to the current level in just last 15 years. We will discuss details in a bit but it’s pertinent to lay down some basic facts which would make it clear that any bill intended to ‘control’ the population, even in Uttar Pradesh, is clearly not needed.Īs per the National Family Health Survey 2015-16, Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in UP was 2.7 children per woman, only slightly higher than the replacement rate of 2.1 (the rate at which a population is able to complete replace itself from one generation to next). Moreover, the bill is so comprehensive that it provides ample opportunities for rent-seeking and corrupt behaviour at the lower levels of state machinery and the law-breakers can easily manipulate it as per their whims. Rather than sticking to implementing the ’two child norm’, it goes further and is basically a bill which is striving to ape China’s infamous and failed ‘one child policy’.
The UP draft bill is even more comprehensive than the Assam one. The proposed draft bill titled ‘The Uttar Pradesh Population (Control, Stabilisation and Welfare) Bill, 2021’ is the second such attempt at the state level after Assam‘s new government issued a new ‘Population and Women Empowerment’ policy document last month. The State Law Commission of Uttar Pradesh which has been working for some time on framing a bill to control the population in India’s most populous state has published a draft and invited public suggestions till 19 July.
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